The Economist (20140712) by calibre

Author:calibre [calibre]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: news, The Economist
Publisher: calibre
Published: 2014-07-10T17:44:40.601000+00:00

If Scotland votes “yes”

Dear Prime Minister and First Minister…

Our advice to David Cameron and Alex Salmond on the tricky disputes and dilemmas involved in breaking up the union

Jul 12th 2014 | From the print edition

IT IS September 19th 2014 and—confounding the opinion polls—Scotland has voted “yes” to independence. You, Alex Salmond, are elated. You, David Cameron, are distraught; you are already being lambasted as the prime minister who botched Britain’s 307-year-old political union. There are noisy calls for your resignation. Prior certainties—such as the contours of Britain’s general election in 2015—are melting in the late-summer sun. Emotions in both nationalist and unionist camps are raw. One side feels triumphant, the other utterly humiliated.

In short, this is a terrible time to begin the most complicated and sensitive internal negotiation in modern British history. And yet you will have to conduct it. Even you, Mr Cameron, pre-emptively declared the result of the referendum binding. There will be “no second chances,” you insisted; a “yes” vote will mean splitting the union. On some subjects, the two of you will find that the interests of Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom (the RUK) overlap. On many others you will be rancorously at odds, and your electorates in no mood for compromise.

Your first task will be to agree the practical details of the negotiations. Even picking a venue will be a challenge. Talks could be split between Edinburgh and London; Dublin would make an alternative, neutral location (and the Irish government a possible arbitrator). The timetable will be contentious, too. Mr Salmond claims that Scotland could become independent on March 23rd 2016, the 309th anniversary of the Act of Union. That is fanciful. The date may fall conveniently before the Scottish election—and appeal to Mr Salmond’s well-developed sense of history—but such breakneck negotiations will store up problems for the future. Consider the hurried creation of the Irish Free State and the subsequent traumas in Northern Ireland. A deadline of 2018 would be more sensible.

Of successors and secessionists

The Irish secession of 1922 also offers a handy template for the negotiations themselves. The Free State was a spin-off, not a break-up. The rest of the United Kingdom inherited the predecessor state’s legal personality, its rights and obligations; the new government in Dublin had to start from scratch. Something similar happened when Singapore became independent of Malaysia in 1965, and when South Sudan broke from Sudan in 2011. This precedent should apply to Scotland’s secession. The RUK will have an exclusive claim on institutions such as Britain’s diplomatic service and the Bank of England, and on international affiliations such as membership of the European Union.

This principle should provide one pillar of negotiations. The second should be that movable assets (such as arms) be split proportionately and that immovable ones (such as public buildings) remain with the state they are in. This, too, is rooted in international precedent.

The reality will be messier. Even if Mr Salmond is willing to adopt such a framework (and you have indicated that you are not), implementing it would be tricky.

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